The Cook Political Report updated its 2020 electoral college projection map Wednesday, giving presumptive Democratic nominee and former Vice President Joe Biden a healthy lead over President Donald Trump.
Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, two states that were crucial to Trump’s win in 2016, moved from the “toss up” column to the “lean Democratic” column. Georgia, which Trump won by over five points in 2016, moved from the “lean Republican” column to the “toss up” column, joining Arizona, North Carolina and Florida, the updated map shows.
Trump won all of those states four years ago.
“This election is looking more like a Democratic tsunami than simply a blue wave,” said Amy Walter, Cook’s national editor.
Other changes to the projection include Maine’s 2nd Congressional District, which moved from “likely Republican” to “lean Republican.” Maine, which apportions its electoral votes by congressional district, moved from “lean Democratic” to “likely Democratic” as a result.
Nebraska, the only other state apportions its electoral votes by congressional district, saw its suburban 2nd Congressional District shift from “toss up” to “lean Democrat” in Cook’s report.
“These moves alone push Biden over the 270 electoral vote threshold,” Walter said, meaning that Biden would still win the election if he were to lose every toss up state.
Trump has significantly trailed Biden in polls across Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan, three states that we won by a combined 77,000 votes four years ago and that he must win again to win reelection, according to election experts.
2/2 Amy Walter’s Cook Political Report write-up on new Electoral College ratings. https://t.co/LFs1n3br8H
— Charlie Cook (@CharlieCookDC) July 8, 2020
Michigan moved from “toss up” to “lean Democratic” on June 19. Trump won the state by fewer than 11,000 votes in 2016, and voters flipped the governorship and two U.S. House seats from Republican to Democrat in 2018.
The map also shows Texas, Iowa and Ohio, three states that Trump won handily in 2016, in the “lean Republican” column. Biden has polled neck-and-neck with Trump in each state, putting them in play for either candidate come November, Walter said in June.
Walter said things things could certainly change in the next four months, but added that “we know that the president is not interested in changing his approach or focus.”
She also said that Trump’s sinking popularity is hurting GOP congressional candidates as well.
Walter also raised the possibility of voters splitting their tickets if they sense a Biden landslide to ensure a “check and balance” in Washington, but said that Trump’s unpopularity across American suburbs may prevent that.
Suburban voters seem to be done with Trump, she said, citing a conversation she had with an election strategist.
Andrew Trunsky on July 8, 2020